Why Bitcoin Is Not At A Top
A Technical Look At Bitcoin & The Broader Crypto Market
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Edition.
Charts & More Charts
Since spot Bitcoin ETF inflows surged to a large daily climax on March 16th, we’ve seen the crypto market pull back and consolidate in an orderly fashion with coins and tokens further out on the risk curve taking it squarely on the chin. In short, while Bitcoin and Ether pulled back off their 2024 highs, scores of alts got shellacked.
With spot ETF inflows having cooled and the Halving now in the rearview, what’s next for crypto? Is the bull run over?
In this Technical Analysis Edition, we’ll look at several charts to attempt to answer these important questions.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD). Bitcoin Daily Trading Range with 100MA.
Bitcoin’s current consolidation remains orderly with relatively equal highs and lows, and takes place near 2024 highs. For Fibonacci fans, Bitcoin’s current consolidation even takes place above the 38.2% retracement level (2022 low to 2024 high) — an indication that the current time correction remains rather mild relative to the advance of the past 1.5 years.
TAKEAWAY: To this point, Bitcoin's current range is normal bull market activityTOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP excl. $BTC & $ETH (TOTAL3). TOTAL3 Daily Bull Flag & 100MA
In contrast, TOTAL3 — a good proxy for Altcoins — shows a much steeper pullback to its rising 100ma and has arguably formed a Bull Flag pattern at this time.
TAKEAWAY: The Altcoin uptrend remains in effect, though in a corrective patternBITCOIN (BTCUSD). Bitcoin with REKTelligence Stretch % Indicator.
Our Stretch % indicator measures Bitcoin’s proximity to its 20ma. Readings below the 0.0 level shown in orange indicate that Bitcoin is x% below its 20ma, and vice versa. Since the start of the current bull market in 2023, the Stretch % indicator has fallen to near or below the -10% level five times, with Bitcoin rallying significantly afterwards nearly every time. While we may see Bitcoin get further stretched below its 20ma sometime later in this uptrend, the approximately -10% Stretch % level has been an important indication of pending Bitcoin bounces so far.
TAKEAWAY: Stretch % just hit a level which has preceded prior Bitcoin bouncesTOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP Excluding $BTC & $ETH (TOTAL3). TOTAL3 with REKTelligence Stretch % Indicator.
Being further out on the risk curve, Altcoin proxy TOTAL3’s Stretch % recently hit -15.6%, nearly the exact same negative Stretch % level last hit back in November 2022’s bear market (-15.4%, 11/9/22). While alts remain harder to predict, the recent selloff may represent a one-and-done washout.
TAKEAWAY: The current TOTAL3 (Altcoin) consolidation may not be over, but we may have seen the low. PI CYCLE TOP Indicator. Source: Lookintobitcoin.com
The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been a historically reliable indication that Bitcoin has made an important high and potential top. In short, it’s an exit signal which would have been effective in the past, at least for Bitcoin. Comprised of the “350ma x 2” and the 111ma — a Pi-related moving average combination — signals occur when the 111ma crosses above the 700ma (i.e., 350 x 2). Why show this? Bitcoin is not anywhere close to triggering this well-regarded topping signal.
TAKEAWAY: Pi Cycle Top does not appear close to signaling a top for BitcoinDELTA TOP Indicator. Source: Lookintobitcoin.com
Using a a combination of on-chain and technical inputs, the Delta Top signal line has been tested at prior Bitcoin highs, with the close-call exception of the 2021 top. Bitcoin remains well below levels which would trigger such a topping signal.
TAKEAWAY: Delta Top does not appear close to signaling a top for BitcoinMVRV Z-score Indicator. Source: Lookintobitcoin.com
Using Market Value, Realized Value, and Z-score, the MVRV Z-score indicator has often been effective in identifying periods where market value is moving unusually high above realized value. Shown in orange, MVRV Z-score remains well below the level (red zone, 7 and higher) at which past Bitcoin cycle highs have occurred.
TAKEAWAY: MVRV Z-score does not appear close to signaling a top for BitcoinWhile many degens are currently holding altcoin wallets of shame, Bitcoin remains firmly in its uptrend with no indications of a major top at hand. Nobody said being a degen was easy.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
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