The Trillion Dollar Ceiling

The Altcoin Index's Key Threshold

May 15, 2025

IN TODAY’S REPORT

What I cover: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Edition. A ceiling for alts?

The Altcoin Index

There’s a threshold that altcoins have never been able to cross. Ever.

Before I go further, the Altcoin Index — the focus of today’s report— is simply the total amount of money invested into all crypto assets, excluding Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and the two largest stablecoins Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USD Coin (USDC).

In short, it’s a great measure of Altcoins.

While alts have surged in late 2023 and late 2024, we’ve not yet seen anything close to a sustained “Alt Season”, something that the market has delivered in previous bull markets.

But we’ve also never seen a crypto bull market occur within a regime of higher interest rates, a clear headwind to the liqudity which has characterized prior Alt Seasons. And that’s before we consider the current trade war and the potential for recession.

Oh yeah, and JPOW just made these remarks earlier today: “We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks.”

At minimum, the market has a Thanksgiving-level buffet of data and worries to digest.

`CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP Excluding Top 10 Dominance (OTHERS.D) with Global Net Liquidity Indicator. Monthly Chart.`

Technically speaking, the Altcoin Index’s surges and subsequent pullbacks have basically held at the rising one-year moving average (365ma), an average that alts have recently been moving up off of.

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The question for this cycle is whether the Alt Index will be able to vanquish the $1 Trillion threshold once and for all. In late 2021, the Alt Index exceeded its earlier 2021 peak but stalled at the $1 Trillion mark, never closing above it.

For the true crypto faithful (read: not just the laser-eyed Bitcoin maxis) envisioning a p2p future in which the outdated TradFi infrastructure gets replaced with blockchain’s revolutionary efficiencies, the $1 Trillion mark is a requirement.

I suspect I’ll be revisiting this topic as the crypto market continues to expand.

But when? That’s a tough one.

For now, I’ll be looking for clues and running statistical queries for insights.

Until next time…

peace_love_crypto

-DB

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