The Reason-Based HODLer
Bitcoin's Nearly 50% Gain Within 30 Days Has Precedence
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: STATS EDITION. Bitcoin’s current technical setup.
TODAY’S STATS
Implications Of The Latest Bitcoin Surge
Less than 50 days away from Bitcoin’s next halving event when the block reward will fall from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin per mined block — and further disrupt the already strained demand/supply dynamics post-ETF approval — the king crypto has surged violently to the upside, something we anticipated in our Valentine’s Day report “Another +54% By The Halving? Stats Say Yes” published just last month.
Today we look at all prior instances of what Bitcoin looks poised to achieve once again in the present: a +50% gain within 30 days. Let’s get into it! Stats below…
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Daily Chart with Today’s Conditions.
To take a closer look at the future implications of the current setup, we need to run a simple test over all of Bitcoin’s reliable history from 2011 to the present. Our “query conditions” represent a basic definition of the technical state of BTCUSD. The simpler the conditions the more data points we get to consider (three conditions is our typical maximum).
First, our simple query conditions with a 90-day hold:
BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin gains >= +50% within 30 days
ENTRY AND EXIT CONDITIONS:
1. ENTRY CONDITION: Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next candle
2. EXIT CONDITION: Exit ("sell") 90-days laterSince 2011, Bitcoin has experienced these conditions 18 times — a very crypto stat when stood next to a TradFi risk market like the S&P 500 Index (SPX) which hasn’t achieved such a gain within 30 days even once since 1950!
On the chart below, all hypothetical trades since inception are shown with a 90-day hold time.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Today’s Conditions: All Trades w/ 90-day Hold. 2011-Now.
While the largest gain occurred in 2011 — the massive outlier of +1105.17% — Bitcoin has still been able to post impressive returns like +171.22% as recently as 2021.
With only 4 losses to date using our conditions, Bitcoin has gained following this setup precisely 77.7% of the time. Even better, the worst loss following these simple conditions is only -28.44%.
Now let’s throw out the phenomenal outlier from Bitcoin’s early history and get an arguably more realistic look at what we might expect going forward.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). All Trades w/ 90-day Hold, EXCLUDING OUTLIER. 2011-Now.
While the removal of the massive outlier hits the average trade meaningfully, Bitcoin’s average trade following this setup still achieves a +79% return within just 90 days. Consider this fact next to a worst loss of -28.44% and Bitcoin arguably still looks attractive even after the recent face-ripping surge above the $60k handle.
While we have nothing against “faith-based” HODLers who view Bitcoin as something akin to a new religion replete with its own monetary promised land, reason-based HODLers appear to have more than enough to go on. So we’ll HODL on, stats in hand.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
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