The Parallels Are Growing
The Optimistic Case For Bitcoin 1,077,070 Inside 24 Months
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: Bitcoin’s 6-month range. The REKTelligence VOLticipation Ultra indicator at extreme. Parallels to a 41x move.
TODAY’S TECHNICAL VIEW
Revisiting 2016
No one’s talking about it, but the parallels to 2016 are growing.
Not only is Bitcoin stuck in a 6-month range under 25% from top to bottom, a technical state which has only occurred once before in 2016 (see last week’s “Does 2016 Suggest Bitcoin 89,197?”), but we’re now seeing another extreme reading emerge over the past week for the king crypto.
The REKTelligence VOLticipation Ultra indicator divides an asset’s 3-year historical volatility by its 3-month historical volatility.
REKTelligence VOLticipation Ultra indicator = 3-year HV / 3-month HVA reading of 1.0 indicates that the 3-year historical volatility is equal to its 3-month historical volatility. The current high reading of 2.15 indicates that the 3-year historical volatility is over 2 times its 3-month historical volatility — a rare level and the highest we’ve seen since 2016.
The parallels to 2016 are growing.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Daily Chart with REKTelligence VOLticipation Ultra Indicator.
Let’s rewind to 2016. Again.
If we combine the 6-month range condition with the newly emergent VOLticipation Ultra indicator reading, the technical parallels between 2016 and 2023 look increasingly bullish.
On April 14th, 2016, Bitcoin’s VOLticipation Ultra Indicator broke above the 2.15 level, with price seemingly doing nothing. In fact, Bitcoin remained range-bound for another 43 days before eventually breaking out above the 470 level, starting an impressive run to 1000 by the first few days of 2017. One year later, Bitcoin nearly touched 20,000 — a 41x move.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Daily Chart with VOLticipation Ultra Indicator. 2016 - 2017.
Today, September 25th, 2023, Bitcoin’s VOLticipation Ultra Indicator hit 2.15, with price seemingly doing nothing. Similar to 2016, Bitcoin has been range-bound for over 6 months. Were a perfect parallel breakout to occur, we’d see a major upside breakout on November 8th — 44 days from now. A subsequent perfectly parallel run would carry Bitcoin to a closing high of 1,077,070 within two years — a 41x move.
Do we expect perfect parallels in any market? No. But analogs do occur in financial markets, and the cloud of disinterest currently hanging over crypto may soon evaporate.
The bullish parallels to 2016 are growing, however parallel the future may look.
HEY THERE! THANKS FOR READING. Please feel free to *SHARE* this report! We appreciate you spreading the word so we can continue to deliver this research. Cheers, DB
peace_love_crypto-DB
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