REKTelligence Crypto Predictions (Part 2)
Predictions For 2024 & Beyond (Part 2)
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: PREDICTION Edition, Part 2.
MORE CRYPTO PREDICTIONS
Before we get to the rest of our crypto predictions, I feel compelled to comment on yesterday’s semi-surprising “approval-just-kidding-not-approval” of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. After the official SEC X account announced the approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs and the media shared this news near instantaneously, Commissioner Gary Gensler tweeted a retraction indicating that the SEC itself had been the victim of a hack. Read SEC Retraction here.
Turns out the agency deemed with protecting investors didn’t have 2FA enabled on its X account. In a cuttingly comic turn of events, leading U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase has now offered to assist the SEC with its cybersecurity and security practices. You gotta love the cryptoverse, reverse-trolling crypto’s biggest troll Gary Gensler.
Now, on to Part 2 of the predictions…
Prediction #5: A Spot Ethereum ETF Becomes Next Major Narrative
Much like the mistaken ETF approval tweet by crypto news organization CoinTelegraph ignited a major rally in Bitcoin last year — a rally which continued even after the tweet was retracted — we're now seeing a shift in relative strength to Ethereum (ETHUSD) following the fake (hacked) tweet from the official SEC website.
As our regular readers know, the long-term ETHBTC chart has long been a favorite, and there has been a battle at the lower boundary of the massive symmetrical triangle which has been forming since Ethereum's inception. Assuming a spot Bitcoin ETF gets approved, a spot Ethereum ETF will become a major narrative and likely drive ETH outperformance from here. In fact, it appears that the market narrative has already shifted as ETHBTC rockets over +5% in early Wednesday trading.
Prediction #6: Next Cycle High Will Occur With A Classic Blow Off Top
Unlike the prior blow off tops we’ve seen in past crypto bull cycles, the 2021 crypto market high saw both Bitcoin and Ethereum put in highs later in the year on lower volume and with less range expansion than their Spring highs. In contrast to the greed-fueled, high volume, rapidly accelerating top we saw in late 2017 and early 2018, the 2021 top occurred with a whimper not a bang.
The next BTC and ETH cycle highs will likely revert to the old school, greed-fueled style of top, driven by retail investors piling into the spot ETFs, arriving extremely late to the crypto party. It will be a sh*tshow of a spectacle, beautiful or ugly depending on which side of coin you’re on. I’m looking forward to it, personally.
Prediction #7: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Paves Way For USG Crypto Self-Custody Ban
While this may constitute more of a future warning than imminent prediction, it’s important to share. Because no government with full control of its currency’s printing press will ever willingly go bankrupt in an act of principled austerity, and because politicians will always deliver bread and circuses to its people no matter the cost, the poor beast pulling the ever-increasing debt burden will continue to be the U.S. Dollar (USD). As the USD’s purchasing power proceeds to fall over time as it inevitably must, many of the world’s nation states will increasingly embrace alternatives to the USD. Increasingly, those alternatives will be cryptocurrencies. This reality poses a threat to the U.S. Government’s (USG) status as the sole provider of the world reserve currency. With multiple spot crypto ETFs likely to be approved over time, the USG may view individual’s independent self-custody of crypto as a threat to the stability of the nation. Remember, spot crypto ETFs represent inside money under the control of the USG’s regulators, banks, and so forth. Self-custodied assets represent outside money beyond the reach of the USG or any government for that matter. In short, you’ve been warned. The USG will soon be able to claim that every individual has the right to own crypto! Oh yeah, but only in an ETF. Self-custody will be banned from that point forward, or potentially entirely. Whether or not such a ban ever goes into effect, make no mistake: the road for such a ban is now being paved right under our red-white-and-blue feet.
Thanks for reading, friends, and as always feel free to spread our Report to any who may enjoy it!
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