REKTelligence Crypto Predictions (Part 1)
Predictions For 2024 & Beyond (Part 1)
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: PREDICTION Edition, Part 1.
TODAY’S CRYPTO PREDICTIONS
Happy 2024, REKTelligensia!
While I’m grateful to have arrived at another Bitcoin Halving Year — currently estimated to occur on 4/17/24 as another 210,000 blocks will then have been mined since 2020 — I’m also sick with a nasty cold and will make part 1 of my predictions brief and to the point
First, before any REKTelligence predictions, let’s look at the so-called prediction market Polymarket and its current bet: “Will a Spot Bitcoin ETF be approved by January 15th?” The answer? Yes, with an 80% probability according to real bettors on Polymarket. In light of multiple well-documented re-filings and back and forth exchanges between the thirteen ETF applicant companies and the SEC itself, this number appears spot-on, if you will.
POLYMARKET OPEN BET: “Spot Bitcoin ETH Approved By Jan 15?”; polymarket.com
Now, on to the predictions…
Prediction #1: Next Bitcoin Cycle High +133% Above Halving Day Price
The next Bitcoin cycle high will be roughly +133% above the price of Bitcoin on its 2024 Halving date. For example, if Bitcoin were to close at 50,000 on the day of its 2024 halving, the next cycle high will be approximately $116,500, or roughly +133% higher. Obviously, this is an estimate (and hopefully a conservative one). Here’s the rationale…
If we look at the maximum gain from each past halving day up to its subsequent bull cycle high, we see a pattern of robust but sharply diminishing gains.
2012 Halving Price to Subsequent High: +9066%
2016 Halving Price to Subsequent High: +2849%
2020 Halving Price to Subsequent High: +668.5%
The 2016 cycle gain is over 68.5% lower than the prior cycle while the 2020 cycle gain is over 76.5% lower than the 2016 cycle. Estimating the next cycle to see diminishing gains around -80% from the 2020 cycle, we arrive at a projection of +133% above this Spring’s halving day’s close. In light of the coming retail onramp into government-controlled Bitcoin ownership — spot crypto ETFs — hopefully this is a conservative estimate.
Prediction #2: Bitcoin Will Not Hit A New ATH in 2024 (but it will probably come close)
The last cycle highs for Bitcoin have occurred between 366 and 546 days following the preceding halving date. While the introduction of spot crypto ETFs could potentially accelerate this timeline, it’s more likely that we’ll see the next cycle high occur in 2025 than this year. Sorry to rain on the party but maybe consider adding patience to your Resolutions list.
Prediction #3: The Next Bitcoin Cycle High Will Occur In November Or December 2025
All prior cycle highs for Bitcoin have occurred in November or December. Give markets enough time and all prior guidelines get broken over time, but this we’ll stick to this timeline for now.
Prediction #4: ETHBTC Will Explode Up Out Of Its Massive Symmetrical Triangle By The End Of 2025
Perhaps my favorite crypto chart of all time, ETHBTC will eventually explode up and out of its massive symmetrical triangle pattern which has been forming since Ethereum’s inception.
While Ethereum dramatically underperformed Bitcoin in 2023 (up only 91% vs. 155% for $BTC) and now tests the lower boundary of this massive pattern, we believe that Ethereum will eventually outperform Bitcoin in equal parts due to the deflationary effects of 2022’s Merge (transition to Proof of Stake), the ability of investors to obtain a yield through no-lock staking, and the coming spot Ether narrative which lies ahead.
peace_love_crypto-DB
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