Projected Bitcoin Top Dates
Analogues from Past Halvings
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Edition. Past halvings and days to cycle high.
If Past Is Prologue
It’s not just any new calendar year. This year follows the last Bitcoin Halving which occurred on April 19th, 2024, and if past is prologue we may see Bitcoin put in a cycle top in 2025.
The graphic below shows all halving dates as well as the number of days it took for Bitcoin to establish a closing cycle high afterwards. To top out, in other words.
For example, it took 367 days for Bitcoin to establish the cycle high following the 2012 halving. Following the next halving in July 2016, it took much longer at 526 days to put in the dramatic December 2017 high.
Following the 2020 halving, some would argue that it took 338 days to establish the April 2021 high while others would hold that the November 2021 high which occurred 548 days later is the correct measure.
So how many days past the 2024 halving are we right now? 262.
Using all of these historical post-halving to cycle high days as potential analogues for the current cycle, we can project a range of potential Bitcoin cycle top dates, all of which fall in 2025 were the king crypto to stay within historical norms.
While odds are that none of these dates precisely match this cycle’s unknowable future high, we can at the very least get a rough idea of the earliest to latest we might expect a Bitcoin cycle high.
Were Bitcoin to top out quickly at just 338 days from the last halving, we’d see Bitcoin put in a high within Q1 of 2025, specifically on March 23rd. Soon!
Were Bitcoin to top out more slowly at 548 days from the last halving, we’d see Bitcoin put in a high in Q4 of 2025, specifically on October 19th.
Separating faster cycles from slower cycles, we could see Bitcoin top out as follows:
Faster Cycle Analogue: Bitcoin could top out between March 23rd and April 21st of this year
Slower Cycle Analogue: Bitcoin could top out between September 27th and October 19th
Naturally, relying solely on these projected dates is insufficient, but could potentially be helpful when combined with classic signals such as the Pi Cycle Top, MVRV Z-Score, the REKTelligence Stretch % indicator, and a pickup in flows back to exchanges.
Whether the Bitcoin faithful will be thrilled or disappointed by year end remains to be seen, but this theme — along with exit signal analysis — will be a recurring theme in these reports as we get deeper into 2025. And while I’ve buried the lead, I’d like to wish each and all of you dear readers a very Happy New Year. LFG.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
The information presented and made available in this newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. THE INFORMATION IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONFUSED WITH INVESTMENT ADVICE AND DOES NOT ATTEMPT OR CLAIM TO BE A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF ANY SPECIFIC COINS, TOKENS OR MARKETS OF ANY KIND, BUT RATHER EDUCATIONAL EXAMPLES OF THE APPLICATION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TO THE MARKET. This information has been presented and prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because as individuals come from diverse backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from your investment advisor or other financial professional as appropriate before taking any action. The opinions and analyses included herein are based on sources and data believed to be reliable and are presented in good faith, however no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made as to their completeness or accuracy. It is imperative to understand your investment risks since all stock investments involve significant risk. The user of REKTelligence’s newsletters, podcasts, courses, coaching and other educational services agrees to indemnify and hold harmless REKTelligence LLC from and against any and all liabilities, expenses (including attorney's fees), and damages arising out of claims resulting from the use of this educational content. REKTelligence LLC is not a licensed investment advisor.
© 2025 REKTelligence LLC