Our Bitcoin Rangeometer Says Get Ready for Likely Stampede
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: Bitcoin’s 90-day Rangeometer hits extreme low. Hold time analysis for current Bitcoin setup. Last five years hold time analysis.
TODAY’S STATS
The REKTelligence Rangeometer Hits Rare Low Extreme
It’s certainly not news that the U.S. government chokehold continues to tighten on major crypto exchanges, myriad altcoins, and banks with fiat to crypto onramps among other entities within the digital asset space. But are crypto investors feeling the same tightening grip? There are two answers to this. For those holding speculative alts including those mentioned in the SEC’s Coinbase lawsuit, the answer is a definitive yes. For those holding Bitcoin (and arguably Ether), however, the only chokehold right now is the ever-tightening range between the highest close and lowest close over the past 90 days as the government’s vice grip has not choked off Bitcoin investors’ ability to HODL, whatever else gets thrown at the space. It’s our view that the inside forces behind the government’s immense power of fiat profligacy (shared by all recent administrations of both major political parties) must attempt to limit the growth of outside money like Bitcoin. Unlike a typical boat with a leaky hull, the more people who exit the leaking fiat ocean liner, the faster the massive ship sinks. While the attack vector may aim squarely at the crypto onramps, price continues to hold within an increasingly bullish daily bull flag pattern, and with Bitcoin’s 90-day Rangeometer also now falling to the extreme low level that we’ll be quantifying in today’s report. Let’s take a deeper dive!
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Daily Chart with Today’s Conditions & REKTelligence Rangometer.
OUR BITCOIN QUERY'S SETUP CONDITIONS:
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin's 90-day range <= 25%
CONDITION 2: Bitcoin closes above its 200ma
ENTRY AND EXIT CONDITIONS:
1. ENTRY CONDITION: Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next candle
2. EXIT CONDITION: Exit ("sell") 90-days laterHere are the results using a 90-day hold:
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Query Results for BTC with a 90-day Hold. 2011-Now.
Using a 90-day hold, the 8 historical occurrences have been overwhelmingly profitable, up 87.5% of the time since the start of reliable Bitcoin data (2011 - now). With a single-digit worst trade of just -9.1% for all of this Bitcoin history, these two stats alone are compelling enough. But the average trade of +67.7% over 90 days combined with a profit factor exceeding 60 (!) seals the deal. Historically, the current low range setup in Bitcoin is stunningly bullish.
Now let’s look at Bitcoin’s results for Average Gain and Average Loss across various holding times ranging from 7 days to one year using data from 2011- Now. Note that the Win % shows how many trades were profitable, hypothetically speaking.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Hold Time Results for Today’s Conditions. 2011-Now.
Across the board, the average gains easily (and far) exceed the average losses. The worst average loss value for all hold times which we examined from 7 days through one year is less than -10%, coming in at just-9.6%. Looking at hold times from 180 days to one year, there are zero historical losses and average gains of +257.8% and +856.9% respectively. While these stats are exciting, let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s more modern history over the last 5 years. Oftentimes these more recent stats - which include two bear markets - look less appealing.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Hold Time Results for Today’s Conditions. Last 5 Years.
While instances of Bitcoin’s 90-day range falling to 25% or lower while above the 200ma are obviously more limited with this narrower date range (3 occurrences or fewer over the past 5 years depending on hold time), the results are unequivocally bullish, with no losses for any of the hold times we examine. While past never predicts future, probability suggests that Bitcoin appears poised for a robust rally from this extremely low range bull flag pattern. With many of the current administration’s forces obscuring any light at the end of tunnel, it may just be darkest right before the stampede.
THE TLDR
A Few Key Takeaways
✔ Bitcoin’s 90-day Rangeometer has fallen to the extreme low level of <= 25% ✔ The government’s vice grip has not choked off Bitcoin investors’ ability to HODL ✔ The worst average loss value for all hold times which we examined from 7 days through one year is less than -10% ✔ Probability suggests that Bitcoin appears poised for a robust rally from this extremely low range bull flag pattern
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