Not Seen Since 2019
Stats Behind the CSR-fueled Pump & Dump
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: STATS EDITION. Bitcoin’s two-day pump & dump. Stats when Bitcoin gains >= +9.5% and loses -8.5% or more the next day.
TODAY’S STATS
Bitcoin’s Two-Day Pump & Dump
Sunday’s surprise announcement by President Trump of a “Crypto Strategic Reserve” (CSR) which will hold XRP, Cardano, Solana, Ether and Bitcoin sent the crypto market soaring, with Bitcoin gaining over +9.5% on the day.
But the gains were quickly faded as the king crypto lost more than -8.5% the next day. How many times has a two-day pump & dump gut punch happened throughout Bitcoin’s history?
Keep reading. This is what I look at today, and I was surprised at the number of instances.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Bitcoin gains >= +9.5% and loses -8.5% or more the next day.
Before I get to the stats, here’s the last time this setup occurred in summer 2019, an instance which happened to mark the high for the year.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Gains >= +9.5% and loses -8.5% or more the next day. 2019.
First I’ll define the current technical setup with two conditions while employing a short-term 14-day hold time, looking at data from 2010 to the present.
BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin gains >= +9.5%
CONDITION 2: Bitcoin declines by -8.5% or more the next day
EXIT CONDITION
Sell 14 days laterBITCOIN (BTC/USD). Hypothetical Trades. 2 Conditions. 2010-Present.
OBSERVATIONS
Performance Summary
• Total Trades: 16
• Winning Trades: 8
• Losing Trades: 7
• Break-Even Trades: 1
• Win Rate: 50.00%
Profit & Loss Breakdown
• Average Gain (Winners): +67.78%
• Average Loss (Losers): -13.18%
• Average Trade (All): +28.12%
• Max Gain: +200.00%
• Max Loss: -29.21%
Key Takeaways
✅ Winners are about 5× larger than losers on average.
✅ Positive Expectancy: With a +28.12% average return per trade, these setups show a strong edge.BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Hypothetical Trades. Exclude Outlier. 2010-Present.
OBSERVATIONS
Performance Summary
• Total Trades: 15
• Winning Trades: 7
• Losing Trades: 7
• Break-Even Trades: 1
• Win Rate: 46.67%
Profit & Loss Breakdown
• Average Gain (Winners): +48.89%
• Average Loss (Losers): -13.18%
• Average Trade (All): +16.67%
• Max Gain: +137.42%
• Max Loss: -29.21%
Key Takeaways
✅ Winners are about 3.7× the size of losers on average
✅ Positive Expectancy: With a +16.67% average return per trade, these setups show a strong edgeEven after ditching the outlier, this stats are bullish. Despite 2019’s ominous instance at that year’s high, the edge remains positive. While the Hit Rate (winning percentage) remains unimpressive (a coin toss at ~ 50%), the average trade skews strongly positive. This is in line with an eventual continuation of the current uptrend.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
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