New Life In Ether?
Ether's New Technical Position
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: STATS EDITION. Ether conditions. New technical position emerging. Negligible losses (mostly). More time required.
TODAY’S STATS
A New Technical Position Emerging
While Ether is feeling the love today, it’s lagged Bitcoin and even the Altcoin Index in recent weeks. That said — based on its expected close and presumptive technical position forming today — we may be seeing new signs of life for the #2 crypto asset.
In short, Ether looks poised to [1] close at a >= 25-day high, [2] has gained >= +15% within the last 7 days, and [3] is now above its declining 50ma.
The technical position which now looks imminent for Ether reflects an asset which is climbing off recent lows and threatening to resume a potential uptrend, or at least conclude its wayward and widely disappointing downtrend.
Let’s get to the stats!
ETHER (ETH/USD). Daily Chart with Today’s Query Conditions
To take a closer look at the future implications of the current setup, we need to run a simple test over all of Ether’s data to the present. Our “query conditions” represent a basic definition of the technical state of ETHUSD. The simpler the conditions the more data points we get to consider (three conditions is our typical max).
First, our simple query conditions with a 90-day hold:
ETHER SETUP CONDITIONS
CONDITION 1: Ether gains >= +15% within 7 days
CONDITION 2: Ether closes at a >= 25-day high
CONDITION 3: Ether closes above its declining 50-day moving average (50ma)
ENTRY AND EXIT CONDITIONS:
1. ENTRY CONDITION: Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next candle
2. EXIT CONDITION: Exit ("sell") 90-days laterETHER (ETH/USD). Today’s Conditions: All Trades w/ 90-day Hold. Inception-Now.
The largest gain under current conditions occurred in April 2017 — the outlier of +354.83% — while the largest loss of -36.35% occurred during the altcoin wreckage of late 2019.
Notably, the worst loss under these conditions ain’t pretty but is far from a disatrous -50% or worse data point. All to say, that’s encouraging. Also favorable is that two of the five losses have been under -3.0%. Negligible.
On the gains side of the ledger, the two largest trades have been blockbusters — +354.83% and +202.33% — and occurred during the early retail rush into the space in 2016 and 2017. At least a handful of analysts believe we’ll see a similar push in a more bullish phase of the current cycle.
In an adundance of caution, however, let’s throw out the 2017 outlier from Ether’s relatively early history and get a more realistic look at what we might expect going forward.
ETHER (ETH/USD). Today’s Conditions: Exclude the Outlier. Inception-Now.
Tossing out 2013’s outsized trade of +354.83% , the average trade drops down sharply from +54.7% to +24.57% using the same 90-day hold time.
That said, a 24.57% gain from Ether’s current level of $2679 (intraday 9/23/24) would put ETH at $3337 by late December — a potential holiday gift for weary Ether bulls, to be sure.
While this would be welcome, it would still put Ether below its March 11th high, and likely still underperforming Bitcoin in 2024.
The 90-day stats here are encouraging but not game-changing. Ether’s most likely going to require more time and fuel to shift the current narrative and ultimately begin to benefit from the structural changes implemented during the Merge just over two years ago.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
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