New Highs As Expected

Bitcoin Stats At 365-Day Highs

May 28, 2025

IN TODAY’S REPORT

What we cover: STATS EDITION. Stats when Bitcoin closes at a 365-day high while not being stretched above its 20ma. Overwhelmingly positive.

TODAY’S STATS

New All-time High As Expected

In my recent March 31st piece called The Bitcoin Quarter Point I discussed the little-known quarter point between halvings, saying:

“History may not repeat, but if you believe that it will rhyme even slightly, then look for new Bitcoin ATHs to follow the late April Quarter Point.”

And right on schedule, we’ve seen Bitcoin put in a new all-time high following yet another quarter point date. As a trader you learn fast that being right can sometimes be a barrier to seeing reality. But not always, and I’m thrilled to see the king crypto at a new ATH so soon.

Today I’m taking a look at new 365-day highs —which we’ve just witnessed — which occur not that far above the 20-day moving average. In other words, rather than look at any new 365-day high for Bitcoin, I’m only looking at new highs which are more likely to occur in the early stages of a bull market.

`BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Bitcoin closes at 365-day high and <= 10% above its 20ma.`

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First I’ll define the current technical setup with two conditions while employing a 180-day hold time, looking only at modern history from 2015 - the present. This avoids large outlier gains from Bitcoin’s early years.

BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS 
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin closes at a 365-day high
CONDITION 2: Bitcoin closes <= 10% above its 20-day moving average

EXIT CONDITION
Sell 180 days later

`BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Hypothetical Trades. Today’s Conditions, 2015-Present.`

The hypothetical trades are overwhelmingly positive, with only three losses semi-clustered between December 2019 and the early part of the 2022 bear market.

OBSERVATIONS
Performance Summary
Total Trades: 10
Winning Trades: 7
Losing Trades: 3
Win Rate: 70%

Profit & Loss Breakdown
Average Gain: +98.06% 
Average Loss: -26.78%
Average Trade: +60.61%
Max Gain: +230.06%
Max Loss: -47.50%

Key Takeaways
✅ Positive Expectancy: With an 60.61% average return per trade, these conditions have an edge over a 180-day time window
✅ Profit Factor of 8.54 indicates that the sum of winnings are over 8.5x greater than the sum of losses. In short, an impressive Profit Factor.
⚠️ A max loss of -47.5% indicates occasional large drawdowns

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New highs have arrived. The future implications of today’s study of 365-day highs are also bullish. When you add in that most Bitcoin-based cycle exit signals are not even close to signalling a potential cycle top, the outlook remains unequivocally bullish.

Until next time…

peace_love_crypto

-DB

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