It's Over & Just Getting Started
Stats When Bitcoin Gains >= +9.0% in a Day
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: STATS EDITION. Bitcoin stats when gaining >= +9% in a day. Variations and observations.
TODAY’S STATS
The Day After
It’s over. The people have spoken. Markets have reacted.
Whether you love or hate the President Elect – and it’s often one or the other – the crypto market surges on the heels of his victory.
As I write this, Bitcoin moves higher by over +9.0%, Ether by over +11.0%, and the Altcoin Index also by just over +9.0%.
How many times has Bitcoin gained +9.0% in a single day? What’s happened next? Does technical context matter? Today I’ll look at all hypothetical trades from 2011 to the present (excluding the outlier gain) using a 30-day hold time.
Trades and insights below…
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Bitcoin gains >= +9% in a day. Sell in 30 Days. Exclude outlier.
BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS (2011 - Now)
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin gains >= +9.0% in a single day
EXIT CONDITION
Sell 30 days later
OBSERVATIONS
*Even excluding the earlier outlier of over +600%, the average gain using a 30-day hold sits just north of 20%
*While the larger gains under these conditions predictably occurred in Bitcoin's early history, recent years have still seen gains of +150.6% (2017) and +72.1% (2021)
*Clearly +9% in a day gains are not unusualBITCOIN gains >= +9% in a day. Above 200ma. Sell in 30 Days. Exclude outlier.
BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS (2011 - Now)
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin gains >= +9.0% in a single day
CONDITION 2: Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average (200ma)
EXIT CONDITION
Sell 30 days later
OBSERVATIONS
*Excluding the earlier outlier and requiring Bitcoin to be above its 200ma lifts the average trade result to 28.8% in just 30 days
*Instances when adding this simple additional condition are also quite common over the yearsBITCOIN gains >= +9% in a day. Makes 365-Day High. Sell in 30D. Exclude outlier.
BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS (2011 - Now)
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin gains >= +9.0% in a single day
CONDITION 2: Bitcoin closes at a 365-day high
EXIT CONDITION
Sell 30 days later
OBSERVATIONS
*Requiring Bitcoin to close at a 365-day high while also gaining +9% in a single day dramatically raises the average trade result to an impressive +43.2% in just 30 days
*While the magnitude of the gains have deteriorated over time, losses are few and far betweenBITCOIN gains >= +9% in a day. Makes 365-Day High. Sell in 30D. Exclude outlier.
BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS (2016 - Now)
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin gains >= +9.0% in a single day
CONDITION 2: Bitcoin closes at a 365-day high
EXIT CONDITION
Sell 30 days later
OBSERVATIONS
*For a more conservative look at hypothetical performance under these conditions in recent years, the average trade result of +17.3% is still impressive over a 30-day time frame
*This time window saw Bitcoin gain 72.7% of the time (8 wins, 11 instances)As I wrap up today’s report, Bitcoin has extended its daily gain slightly while Ether now surges over +13.0%, and many alts are gaining north of +20%.
Will moving further out on the crypto risk curve finally pay? I’ll explore this in a future report.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
The information presented and made available in this newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. THE INFORMATION IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONFUSED WITH INVESTMENT ADVICE AND DOES NOT ATTEMPT OR CLAIM TO BE A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF ANY SPECIFIC COINS, TOKENS OR MARKETS OF ANY KIND, BUT RATHER EDUCATIONAL EXAMPLES OF THE APPLICATION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TO THE MARKET. This information has been presented and prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because as individuals come from diverse backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from your investment advisor or other financial professional as appropriate before taking any action. The opinions and analyses included herein are based on sources and data believed to be reliable and are presented in good faith, however no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made as to their completeness or accuracy. It is imperative to understand your investment risks since all stock investments involve significant risk. The user of REKTelligence’s newsletters, podcasts, courses, coaching and other educational services agrees to indemnify and hold harmless REKTelligence LLC from and against any and all liabilities, expenses (including attorney's fees), and damages arising out of claims resulting from the use of this educational content. REKTelligence LLC is not a licensed investment advisor.
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Good one.