Implications of Bitcoin's 40-Day Low

Stats for Bitcoin's Current Technicals

Jan 13, 2025

IN TODAY’S REPORT

What we cover: STATS EDITION. Bitcoin stats when closes at a 40-day low while above key moving averages.

TODAY’S STATS

Short-term Correction

Earlier in today’s session, Bitcoin broke below $90k while Ether lost the $3k level as the correction continues to unfold across most digital assets. While off their respective lows as I write this, today I look the technical conditions currently present in Bitcoin.

`BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Bitcoin hits a >= 40-day low above rising 100, 200, & 365 MAs.`

What does recent history tell us about what’s happening right now?

If we ditch the multiple narratives and ceaseless news, we get to the stats behind the price action. Let’s dive in!

By defining its recent technical setup with two conditions and employing a 90-day holding time, we can see that this is a somewhat common occurrence. Note that I’ve eliminated two outliers from the early years: an over +2000% gain and a -73% loss. Everything else is shown below.

`BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Bitcoin Hypothetical Trades. Exclude early outliers. 2016-Now.`

BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS (2016 - Now)
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin closes at a >= 40-day low
CONDITION 2: Bitcoin closes above its 100ma, 200ma, and 365ma

EXIT CONDITION
Sell 90 days later

OBSERVATIONS
*Even excluding the early outliers, the average gain using a 90-day hold sits at +13.5% 

*Recent hypothetical trades have seen a cluster of gains

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While Ether continues to disappoint ETH bulls as it seems to perpetually chop below its all-time high set in 2021, Bitcoin remains above its 100ma, 200ma, and one-year (365ma) moving averages even as it hits a multi-week low.

But today’s Bitcoin stats are a far cry from hugely bullish. Looking at the next 90 days from a price perspective, a potential +13.5% move higher certainly won’t lead any Bitcoin maxis to shout from the rooftops.

If past cycle dynamics come to reign in 2025, however, today’s lackluster stats should be of no concern. If you missed last week’s cycle-related report, check it out here.

Until next time…

peace_love_crypto

-DB

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