From Boring To Spectacular
A Powerful New Bitcoin Signal Triggers in September
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: STATS Edition. Bitcoin’s 6-month range. 200 days since ATH. 2016. 2023. 2024. New signal triggers. Something spectacular.
Over 200 Days & Counting
It’s been over 200 days now since Bitcoin squeeked out a new all-time high in March.
And the 200 days since? They’ve alternated between hopium-inspired upside sprints and unnerving downside plunges, all to a mind-numbingly boring effect.
Such is the nature of ranges.
Is there anything to love about this sleep-inducing range? Have we been here before? The answer is yes to both questions.
Running a test over Bitcoin data from 2011 to the present, we’ve seen this pattern — a 6-month trading range which is <= 30% from highest close to lowest close — twice before when using a “sell in 6 months” exit.
The upshot? I’ll get to that shortly. Let’s check out the two prior instances first.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD). Daily Chart with 6-Month Range <= 30%. 2016.
From November 2015 through May 2016, Bitcoin traded in such a range which also happened to be an ascending triangle formation. The king crypto rocketed higher shortly afterwards, and with a “sell in 6 months” exit gained +65.02% by November 2016. Half a year in a range, and half a year appreciating. A far bargain for this magnitude gain.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD). Daily Chart with 6-Month Range <= 30%. 2023.
From March 2023 through September 2023, Bitcoin traded essentially sideways in another 6-month range <= 30% from highest close to lowest close. Within weeks, Bitcoin soared right into the current calendar year and gained +171.84% using a “sell in 6 months” exit. Even more impressive than in 2016.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD). Daily Chart with 6-Month Range <= 30%. 2024.
After hitting the March all-time high, Bitcoin once again settled into its current trading range which just met the 6-month mark last month, triggering the latest instance of this lengthy setup.
So here we are again. Another impossibly boring range for Bitcoin.
But alas, brush off the dust, sweep out the cobwebs, and buckle up. We may finally be on the cusp of something spectacular.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
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