Five Charts To Watch Right Now
My Top Crypto Charts & Takeaways
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Edition. Altcoin Index. Cup & Handle. Ether and HODLers. The Election.
The Charts I Check Daily…
The idea behind today’s Report is simple: these are the charts I check each and every day, usually multiple times. Charts and Takeaways below. Hope you find them beneficial.
ALTCOIN INDEX. Total Crypto Market Cap minus $BTC, $ETH, $USDT, $USDC.
The best way to look at altcoins as a whole is to sum all the money invested in crypto and then subtract the collective market cap of Bitcoin and Ether along with stablecoins Tether and USD Coin. What’s left? Everything else.
Since March, altcoins have formed a large bull flag pattern which has corrected all the way down to its rising 4-year moving average. In September, however, the Altcoin Index established a higher swing low for the first time, subsequently followed by a breakout above the top of the flag formation — both constructive technical developments.
TAKEAWAY: The current pullback to the top of the bull flag channel is a classic retest of the origin of the breakout. Bulls should be poised to show aggressive demand in this area, but low volume on the September breakout and the looming election may foil their plans.BITCOIN (BTCUSD). Daily Chart w/ 365ma. September 2022 - Now.
Profiled in a recent REKTelligence Report, the dominant pattern in Bitcoin remains the massive Cup & Handle. The daily bull flag pattern — the “handle” in other words — has now tested the rising 365-day moving average and looks poised to eventually break higher, potentially significantly.
TAKEAWAY: This large formation remains highly bullish, but timing its potential fulfillment (i.e., breakout to the upside) is challenging. The U.S. election and its aftermath is the first major trigger event which could ignite this pattern in my view. ETHEREUM (ETHUSD). Weekly Chart w/ 200-week MA. January 2022 - Now.
Technically lagging behind Bitcoin and leading layer-one competitor Solana, Ether has nevertheless improved slightly in recent days and holds its rising 200-week moving average, a level which it has held several times in the past.
TAKEAWAY: Ether may be forming a bottom in this area, though it's the 2800 to 3000 level which needs to be conquered before ETH can progress meaningfully to the upside. ETHEREUM. Balance of Assets Belonging to HODLers. IntoTheBlock Data. Sept 2023-Now.
Interestingly, despite Ether’s underperformance, those holding the asset for a year or more continues to climb and just hit another new high.
TAKEAWAY: HODLers typically start to decrease their holdings in highly bullish phases, selling to noobs who've just arrived at the party right as the punchbowl goes dry. But this isn't happening at all. ETH HODLers continue to hold, supporting the idea stated by many within crypto that the bull market hasn't even started yet.PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WINNER (Polymarket). Snapshot taken 10:45am ET, 10/11/24.
Love them or hate them, one of these two candidates will be the next President of the United States within a few months.
For those unfamiliar, Polymarket is a betting market in which participants place real money wagers on the outcome of various events such as the upcoming election. Just recently, candidate Trump has moved somewhat meaningfully ahead of candidate Harris.
TAKEAWAY: Rightly or wrongly, the current conventional wisdom believes that Trump would be better for the crypto market. Market prices will likely confirm or refute this idea soon. Either way, this chart is definitely one to watch. Earlier this year, I predicted that we would not see a new Bitcoin all-time high in 2024. I was quickly wrong, as spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved and inflows surged. But after months of Bitcoin consolidation and altcoin correction, I feel somewhat vindicated. No surge to repeated new highs has taken place, and the dominant price action has been sideways to down. That said, I’d love to be “wrong again” and see Bitcoin break out of its massive bullish pattern by year end.
With the gravitational pull of the U.S. election as strong as ever, this looks unlikely in October. HODLers must HODL on.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
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