ETH's Current Setup Has A 100% Win Rate

Breaking Down Ethereum's Bullish Technical Setup

Jan 12, 2024

IN TODAY’S REPORT

What we cover: STATS EDITION. Defining current ETH conditions. Trades scatter with Average Trade. Cusp of the halving.

TODAY’S STATS

The investment world has changed forever with this week’s spot Bitcoin ETF (ETP) approvals. Because I’ve already written extensively about the implications of this milestone, we’ll look today at Ethereum’s sudden outperformance against the king crypto. Ether’s new surge comes as no surprise to our regular readers, and the stats behind its latest technical setup should further bolster the confidence of ETH HODLers and traders alike.

As Bitcoin now looks poised for a normal, healthy pullback, Ether just closed up for four straight days to close at a 365-day high. Additionally, this closing high is not stretched too far above ETHUSD’s 20-day moving average (20ma), indicating that while Ether has exhibited welcome strength lately, it’s not dramatically overheated.

`ETHEREUM (ETH/USD). Daily Chart with Today’s Conditions.`

First, to take a closer look at the future implications of the current setup, we need to run a simple test over all of Ethereum’s history from inception to the present. Our “query conditions” represent a basic definition of the technical state of ETHUSD. The simpler the conditions the more data points we get to consider (three conditions is our typical maximum).

First, our simple query conditions below:

ETHEREUM SETUP CONDITIONS

CONDITION 1: Ether closes higher for 4 straight days
CONDITION 2: Ether closes at a 365-day high
CONDITION 3: Ether is < 20% above its 20-day moving average (i.e., not overly "stretched" above its 20ma)


ENTRY AND EXIT CONDITIONS:

1. ENTRY CONDITION: Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next candle
2. EXIT CONDITION: Exit ("sell") 90-days later

Share REKTelligence Report

Using a 90-day holding period, Ether’s prior trades matching current conditions are surprisingly few in number — just five occurrences (closed hypothetical trades) in all of ETH’s history.

`ETHEREUM (ETH/USD). Today’s Conditions: All Trades w/ 90-day Hold. Inception-Now.`

While this means we cannot rely on statistical significance with today’s stats, we can’t help but be impressed with the average trade of +102.55%. Oh yeah, and in just 90 days. Did I mention that there are no losses in all of ETH’s history of this specific setup?

Using a 90-day exit, trade results range from a low outcome of +11.21% in 2018 up to the best result of 284.91% in 2017. Two trades notch triple digits while all trades gained at least double digits.

Ninety days from now we’ll be on the cusp of the Bitcoin halving currently set to occur on April 17th. Will we also be at a new ETH high, or just damn close? Too tough to call at this moment, but the stats look ever in our favor.

peace_love_crypto

-DB

Available for iOS and Android

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

The information presented and made available in this newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. THE INFORMATION IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONFUSED WITH INVESTMENT ADVICE AND DOES NOT ATTEMPT OR CLAIM TO BE A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF ANY SPECIFIC COINS, TOKENS OR MARKETS OF ANY KIND, BUT RATHER EDUCATIONAL EXAMPLES OF THE APPLICATION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TO THE MARKET. This information has been presented and prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because as individuals come from diverse backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from your investment advisor or other financial professional as appropriate before taking any action. The opinions and analyses included herein are based on sources and data believed to be reliable and are presented in good faith, however no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made as to their completeness or accuracy. It is imperative to understand your investment risks since all stock investments involve significant risk. The user of REKTelligence’s newsletters, podcasts, courses, coaching and other educational services agrees to indemnify and hold harmless REKTelligence LLC from and against any and all liabilities, expenses (including attorney's fees), and damages arising out of claims resulting from the use of this educational content. REKTelligence LLC is not a licensed investment advisor.