Ethereum Has Never Done This Before

Aug 23, 2023

IN TODAY’S REPORT

What we cover: Ether’s technicals are a first. 160-day closing lows analysis. Average trade stats and win rate for ETH under similar conditions.

TODAY’S STATS

Ether Closes At 160-Day Low And Makes History

In a market that trades 24/7/365 there are very few firsts. But Ethereum’s downside bleed into this week — specifically yesterday’s close at a 160-day low while above its one-year moving average — was indeed a first. All prior closes at 160-day lows have occurred below the one-year moving average.

Being a first, naturally there’s no precedent to examine. No matching prior conditions to query. So we’ll relax our constraints today and look solely at what’s happened when Ether has closed at a 160-day low. This will provide a good though imperfect perspective on what we might expect moving forward.

`ETHEREUM (ETH/USD). Daily Chart with One Year Moving Average (365ma).`

First, our simple query condition below:

OUR ETHEREUM QUERY'S SETUP CONDITIONS

CONDITION 1: Ether closes at a 160-day low


ENTRY AND EXIT CONDITIONS:

1. ENTRY CONDITION: Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next candle
2. EXIT CONDITION: Exit ("sell") N-days later

Here are the results with a variety of hold times:

`ETHEREUM (ETH/USD). Hold Time Results with Win % and Average Trade. Inception-Now.`

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Put simply, the historical picture is mixed. In the short to intermediate-term, the outlook for Ether after closing at a 160-day low is unquestioningly (though modestly) bearish. Win % is also under 50% for every hold time from 7 days through 60 days. History says to expect short-term pain.

Moving out to a 90-day holding time, there’s a glimmer of light with the average trade now positive at +20.4%.

But it’s the long-term hold that has historically delivered the stunning returns that Ether’s famous for, with average trade stats of +466% and +1316% using a 180-day hold and 365-day hold respectively.

While the win rate following 160-day lows leaves a lot to be desired, the average trade stats speak for themselves. First or not, we’ve got our mind set for likely short-term pain with an eye on probable long-term Ethereum gain.

P.S. HEY THERE! THANKS FOR READING. Please feel free to SHARE this report! We appreciate you spreading the word. Cheers, DB

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THE TLDR

A Few Key Takeaways

Text within this block will maintain its original spacing when published

✔ Win % is also under 50% for every hold time from 7 days through 60 days. History says to expect short-term pain.
✔ Moving out to a 90-day holding time, there’s a glimmer of light with the average trade positive at +20.4%. 
✔ ETH's average trade stats of +466% and +1316% using a 180-day hold and 365-day hold respectively are impressive

peace_love_crypto

-DB

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