Ethereum: Be Glad For This Moment
Today's Conditions Point North For Ethereum
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: Ether poised to gain +3% after four straight up days. Hypothetical trades with a 60-day hold. Removing the outlier. Our exit liquidity.
TODAY’S STATS
Whatever The Reason
Whether it’s due to the newly configured Holesky test network launch or the delightful battering of SEC Chair Gensler by the House Financial Services Committee, Ether trades sharply higher in today’s session, up over +3.00% as we write. Whatever the reason, it’s welcome upside.
Thursday’s excellent performance for ETH comes after three prior days of upside, making the prospect of a fourth straight day up by the completion of today’s daily candle a near certainty.
ETHEREUM (ETH/USD). Daily Chart with Today’s Query Conditions.
To take a closer look at the future implications of Ethereum’s current setup, let’s define the conditions. Our simple query conditions below:
//QUERY CONDITIONS//
CONDITION 1: Ether gains >= +3.00%
CONDITION 2: Ether closes higher for 4 straight days
//ENTRY AND EXIT CONDITIONS//
1. ENTRY CONDITION: Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next candle
2. EXIT CONDITION: Exit ("sell") 60-days laterUsing a 60-day hold time (exit), below are the hypothetical trade results for every time we’ve seen today’s setup over all of Ethereum’s history.
ETHEREUM (ETH/USD). Query Trades History with a 60-Day Hold Time. Inception-Now.
While there are plenty of seriously robust hypothetical gains after 2017, the back to back years of 2016 and 2017 account for the largest gains following from this specific setup. Note that the January 2018 trade shows an exit date of January 14th, so this trade would have been entered in 2017 as well.
Best Result: +551.85%
Worst Result: -53.08%
Average Result: +47.55%
Early years aside, this setup has produced remarkable gains right up to the present. In fact, since 2020, there have only been two losses, with numerous gains. For a more conservative perspective, however, let’s now ditch the 2016 outlier trade of +551.85% and recalculate.
ETHEREUM (ETH/USD). Query Trades (no outlier) with a 60-Day Hold. Inception-Now.
While the average trade result dropped from +47.55% down to +29.54%, a near 30% average trade should be welcome potential development for any ETH trader or HODLer — Maxi or not.
Best Result (after removing the outlier gain): +277.09%
Worst Result: -53.08%
Average Result: +29.54%
Based on the current as-we-write ETH price of 1650, an average result after ditching the outlier would put Ethereum at 2137.41 by mid November. Combined with other recent ETH queries, and many alts coming off their lows, we believe this may be conservative.
Whatever the reason for today’s upside — and whatever the future price — be glad for this moment. Current crypto market sentiment leans just left of Neutral and into Fear. After countless 2023 queries over a wide range of conditions, we can state with strong conviction that the fearful will eventually turn greedy at much higher levels, adding more fuel to Ethereum’s expected future fire. Their greed will be our exit liquidity.
HEY THERE! THANKS FOR READING. Please feel free to *SHARE* this report! We appreciate you spreading the word so we can continue to deliver this research. Cheers, DB
peace_love_crypto-DB
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