IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: STATS EDITION. ETH’s Golden Cross signals.
TODAY’S STATS
Hang In There ETH Bulls
Ethereum remains in a -25% drawdown, the ETHBTC ratio sits near multi-year lows, and the narrative around Bitcoin dominates the crypto market headlines.
But is it all negative for the #2 crypto asset? Hardly.
Ether will soon see another Golden Cross crossover signal in which its 50-day simple moving average will cross above its 200-day simple moving average on a closing basis.
Today I take short but sweet look at the history of ETH’s Golden Cross signals using a roughly 6-month hold.
Let’s dig in…
ETHER (ETH/USD). Daily Chart with 50ma & 200ma.
By defining its recent technical setup with today’s single condition while employing a 180-day hold time, we can see that this is an infrequent occurrence across the years. That said, Ether is a relatively new asset and data is of course limited.
ETHER (ETH/USD). Hypothetical Golden Cross trades with 180-day hold. Inception-Now.
ETHER SETUP CONDITIONS (Inception - Now)
CONDITION 1: Ether's 50-day sma crosses above its 200-day sma
EXIT CONDITION
Sell 180 days later
OBSERVATIONS
*While limited in number, the largest and only loss following a Golden Cross signal is less than one percent - amazing.
*The average trade of +59.2% in just 180 days bodes well for ETH in 2025, even removing the large 2017 outlier.
*While purely speculative, the arguments for a 2017-style melt-up for Ether are many, including an incoming pro-crypto U.S. administration, the resignation of SEC head Gensler, and crypto now entering a historically favorable moment in the cycle. On the negative side, ETH continues to lag its Layer 1 competitor Solana and remains in a continued and steeper drawdown relative to some other prominent alts.
Ether has been steadily gaining traction lately, first hurdling above the 3000 level then closing above 3500 for the first time since the summer. With the next Golden Cross signal incoming in a matter of days, we may be about to witness the best Golden Cross signal in ETH since 2017.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto
-DB
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