BTC Stretch & Liquidity

Bitcoin Right Now From Two Perspectives

Mar 13, 2025

IN TODAY’S REPORT

What I cover: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Edition. Bitcoin right now from two perspectives. Closer to a low.

Today’s Key Charts

`BITCOIN with REKTelligence STRETCH % Indicator. Daily Chart.`

While altcoins continue to get rekt (more on that in an upcoming report), let’s get some perspective on the king: Bitcoin. A great way to do this is by examining Bitcoin’s degree of “stretch” below its 20-day moving average (20ma).

While the 20ma is obviously a short-term average, by measuring the percentage distance between Bitcoin’s “closing” price and the 20ma, we often see important lows established when price gets stretched far below the average. This is what’s behind the REKTelligence STRETCH % Indicator.

While historically we’ve seen some dramatically low readings like -43.7% amid the COVID crash and -30% inside the last bull cycle when China pushed most miners out of the country, the current bull market's lows have often been accompanied by Stretch % readings between -10% and -15%.

TAKEAWAY: Bitcoin’s most recent low Stretch % reading? My indicator just hit -11.9% on Monday 3/10/25. Bitcoin now sits in the typical range for the current bull cycle's lows as it approaches the rising 365ma. While obviously readings can get much much worse, THIS is the area (-10% to -15%) where HODLers will want to see the bulls show up again.

`BITCOIN with REKTelligence USA Liquidity Index. Daily Chart.`

The COVID-driven liquidity of 2020 and 2021 will be written about in financial history books for many decades to come.

The current state of domestic liquidity? Flatlining. Rangebound. Stuck.

While the king crypto has been able to rally for much of 2023 & 2024 despite this, there’s no firehose of liquidity washing over risk markets at the present time.

TAKEAWAY: While the last cycle was certainly unique in its explosion of government spending and stimulus, it's not an absolute requirement for Bitcoin to ascend provided liquidity is not in a downward retreat.

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While I ran out of time to discuss it in today’s report, the $72,000 level — where many highs were established over the past year and in 2021 — could act as an area of potential support given a further breakdown for Bitcoin. A quick plummet down to that area could potentially drive the Stretch % indicator to more extreme levels, setting up a major bounce. Alternatively, with its recent Stretch % reading already having hit a level typical of bull market lows in the current cycle, perhaps a quick plunge can be avoided. Either way, we’re likely closer to a low than not.

Until next time…

peace_love_crypto

-DB

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

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