Bored Ape In A Bear Market
Bitcoin's Stats Defy Global Chaos
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What I cover: STATS EDITION. Implications of Bitcoin’s huge day Wednesday.
Today’s Key Charts
Following Wednesday’s announcement of a 90-day tariff pause on much of the world, Bitcoin vaulted higher, gaining +8.25%. Many alts pumped 20% or more.
Today I look at what’s happened since 2012 when Bitcoin [1] closes >= +8.25% in a single day while [2] above its 365-day (one year) moving average.
For data nerds, I’ve tossed out the wild outliers of 2011 for a more realistic look at these conditions over time.
Read on for insights into the implications…
BITCOIN Hypothetical Trades Under Wednesday’s Conditions. Exits in 30D / 60D / 90D.
Here we see all hypothetical trades using three different exit windows:
Exit 30 days later (Blue circles)
Exit 60 days later (Orange x’s)
Exit 90 days later (Green squares)
TAKEAWAY: Outliers well over +100% have occurred in every prior bull cycle following +8.25% single day gains when above the one-year MA. Given its more generous time window, many of these outliers occurred over a 90-day window.
BITCOIN Summary of Trades by Exits Duration (30D / 60D / 90D). 2012 - Now.
TAKEAWAY: Worst case trade results here are somewhat impressive, meaning there are no losses worse than -41.55%, a surprise given this much Bitcoin history. More impressive are the high profit factors ranging from 4.81 to 15.56, an indication that the sum of gross gains are multiples greater than the sum of gross losses.
BITCOIN Price Projections Assuming an $80,000 Starting Price.
While I’m not making any bold predictions here, I am visualising potential best and worst outcomes based on history from (roughly) current levels: $80,000.
The three green bars show potential BEST outcomes based on history over 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day time windows. The three red bars show potential WORST outcomes based on the same. The price labels inside each bar are the hypothetical price of Bitcoin if history were to repeat over each respective timeframe. This exercise simply illustrates what’s possible, nothing more.
TAKEAWAY: At the extremes, Bitcoin could potentially drop to $46,760 within 60 days. Alternatively, and far more pleasant, Bitcoin could potentially vault to $356,184 inside 90 days.
An assault of tariffs with machine-gun rapidity, recent nail-biter bond auctions, and shifting narratives from the very top of global power have pushed Bitcoin and the broader market around like a bored ape in a bear market.
But the stats here are compelling, with odds suggesting that higher prices are more likely than not.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
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Good one - adjusting for some of the outliers does make some of the rest of it more palatable. Impressed w/ the rel strength this cycle. Bitcoin could be growing up - or infiltrated with the same people that were long bonds a day or two ago that decided to shift teams. Time will tell.