Bitcoin: The Skeptics vs. The Stats
Crypto Skeptics Still Proliferate in 2023 But Bitcoin's Stats Remain Bullish
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: Common crypto skeptics. We’ve seen this BTC pattern before. Bitcoin stats with various hold times.
TODAY’S STATS
We've Been Here Before
The doubt-rich skeptics still proliferate in 2023:
Bitcoin can’t scale
Crypto is just a tool for bad actor nation states
Stocks are back near record highs but cryptocurrencies aren’t even close
But we’ve been here before. The myriad doubts, the crab-walking price movement, and the seemingly general lack of interest. Also, more specifically, Bitcoin’s current daily price setup. It’s all happened before.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Daily Chart with 200ma and 365ma.
Bitcoin recently fell back below its 200-day moving average to close at a 60-day low. Despite this setback, Bitcoin still remains above its rising one-year moving average. Believe it or not, that’s four conditions which when combined have occurred several times before.
To take a closer look at the future implications of the current setup, we’ll run a simple test over all Bitcoin’s history from 2011 to the present. First, our query conditions below:
OUR BITCOIN QUERY'S SETUP CONDITIONS
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin closes at a 60-day low
CONDITION 2: Bitcoin closes above its 365-day (one year) moving average
CONDITION 3: Bitcoin's 365-day MA is rising
CONDITION 4: Bitcoin closes below its 200-day moving average
ENTRY AND EXIT CONDITIONS:
1. ENTRY CONDITION: Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next candle
2. EXIT CONDITION: Exit ("sell") N-days laterWhen we run our test over Bitcoin’s historical data, we get these results using a variety of hold times. For those new to our work, here’s a quick guide:
Win %: This shows the percentage of hypothetical trades which were profitable when exited “N-Days” later. For example, if someone bought Bitcoin each time all today’s query conditions were met in the past and exited 60 days later, Win % shows how many of those trades with have been profitable.
Average Trade %: Shows the average trade result for various hypothetical hold times (i.e., for a 30-day hold, 60-day hold, 90-day hold, 180-day hold, and a 365-day hold).
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Hold Time Results. 2011-Now.
A quick glance at the hold times results is telling. While the average trade stat is positive for all hold times, the short to intermediate-term results are meager. No one will argue with an 8.5% average trade stat in 30 days, but isn’t crypto supposed to deliver more? In short, looking 30 days to 90 days out, there’s not too much to get excited about.
Moving out to a 180-day holding time, however, this setup has delivered on average a +139.6% average trade, albeit with only a 43% win rate.
Extending out to a 365-day holding time, Bitcoin’s current setup has delivered a similar +133.8% average trade even when profitable only half the time.
With 221 days until the next Bitcoin Halving event, we may be looking at a Bitcoin price north of 61,000 right before the block reward gets halved around mid-April 2024.
When the loud anti-crypto voices grow soft and the diehard skeptics become hard to find, we’ll be concerned about a potential Bitcoin cycle top. For now the stats are clear. It’s a time for patience. It’s a time to HODL.
HEY THERE! THANKS FOR READING. Please feel free to *SHARE* this report! We appreciate you spreading the word so we can continue to deliver this research. Cheers, DB
peace_love_crypto-DB
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