Bitcoin 386,549? Golden Cross Revealed
A Detailed Look At Bitcoin's Golden Cross Signals
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: Bitcoin’s new golden cross signal, historical trades scatter, remove the outlier, implications for BTCUSD.
TODAY’S STATS
Bitcoin’s New Golden Cross Signal
As Bitcoin consolidates tightly following its recent upside breakout, the tenth-ever Golden Cross moving average crossover just flashed a “buy” signal. Defined as when the 50-day moving average (50ma) crosses above the 200-day moving average (200ma), past signals have occasionally seen dramatic gains.
So what should we expect after this latest signal? Let’s take a look.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Daily Chart with Today’s Conditions.
First, our simple query conditions below. We’ll test these conditions over all reliable data from 2011 to now next.
BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS
ENTRY CONDITION: Bitcoin's 50-day moving average (50ma) crosses above its 200-day moving average (200ma). Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next candle.
EXIT CONDITION: Bitcoin's 50-day moving average (50ma) crosses below its 200-day moving average (200ma). Exit ("sell") at the open of the next candle.
Before we examine all nine prior Golden Cross trades, note that just below the percentage return is another value representing the number of days in trade. For example, the most recent trade closed in 2023 gained +11.15% and lasted 217 days.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Golden Cross Trades, 2011-Now.
Bitcoin’s nine prior Golden Cross trades have seen five wins and four losses for a Win% of 55.56%. Its average gain? +2024.17% Average loss? -21.59%. The asymmetry between these averages is astounding, with the average gain to average loss ratio sitting at 93.7. Wow.
While losses tend to be much shorter in length than gains, the average days in trade comes in at 305, roughly 83% of a year, with winning trades lasting an average 494 days — over 1.35 years.
Now let’s take a more conservative look at these results by throwing out the enormous outlier trade of +7536.71.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Golden Cross Trades with 2014 Outlier Removed, 2011-Now.
While the new conservative average trade drops precipitously from +1114% to +312%, the stage still looks set for a major rally. If Bitcoin were to experience an average Golden Cross trade from current levels — outlier included — we’d see Bitcoin reach the price of 386,549 by early 2025. Removing the outlier, we’d see Bitcoin hit a more conservative price of 108,246 within the same timeframe.
Even as data-driven traders and investors, we never know whether the next signal will return a gain or loss. The future remains unknown even to the most informed. Regardless, the Golden Cross signal once again suggests a bright outlook with potentially outsized upside. Who’s ready for the next 1.35 years? LFG.
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