Bitcoin $133,000 By July? Stats Say Yes.
Bitcoin May Now Be Poised To Attack $100k
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: STATS EDITION. Bitcoin poised to close at a 20-day high within a highly bullish uptrend. $133k? Early innings.
TODAY’S STATS
The Healthy Pause May Soon Be Over
The Bitcoin and Ether consolidations we expected have been under way for about three weeks — a healthy technical development — and now appear poised to break out of their respective consolidation patterns and close at a 20-day high.
The significance? In short, Bitcoin may be setting up to push to another all-time high while Ether may finally be getting ready to retest its all-time high from the last bull cycle in 2021.
Today’s report looks at historical closes at 20-day highs while trading within a highly bullish uptrend, defined in our query conditions below.
Let’s get to the stats!
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Daily Chart with Rising Moving Averages.
To take a closer look at the future implications of the current setup, we need to run a simple test over all of Bitcoin’s reliable history from 2011 to the present. Our “query conditions” represent a basic definition of the technical state of BTCUSD. The simpler the conditions the more data points we get to consider (three conditions is our typical max).
First, our simple query conditions with a 90-day hold:
BITCOIN SETUP CONDITIONS
CONDITION 1: Bitcoin closes at a >= 20-day high
CONDITION 2: Bitcoin closes above its 50ma, 100ma, 200ma, and 365ma
CONDITION 3: All moving averages are rising
ENTRY AND EXIT CONDITIONS:
1. ENTRY CONDITION: Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next candle
2. EXIT CONDITION: Exit ("sell") 90-days laterSince 2011, Bitcoin has experienced these conditions 22 times — a fairly regular event. On the chart below, we display all hypothetical trades since 2011, shown with a 90-day hold time. The dates below correspond to the hypothetical EXIT DATE of the setup (i.e., 90 days after the setup conditions have been met).
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). Today’s Conditions: All Trades w/ 90-day Hold. 2011-Now.
As we often see in these queries, the largest gain occurred in 2011 — the large outlier of +1374.47% — while the largest loss of -51.43% occurred during the 2014 bear market. In recent years, the magnitude of both gains and losses have been more muted.
With only 5 closed losses to date using our conditions, Bitcoin has gained following this setup precisely 77.2% of the time.
Now let’s throw out the 2011 outlier from Bitcoin’s early history and get an arguably more realistic look at what we might expect going forward.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD). All Trades w/ 90-day Hold, EXCLUDING OUTLIER. 2011-Now.
Tossing out 2011’s standout trade of +1374.47%, the average trade drops roughly 40% from +146% down to +87%.
That said, an 87% gain from Bitcoin’s current level of $71,614 (intraday April 8th, 2024) would put Bitcoin at $133,918 by early July, 2024.
While we’ve only looked at one statistical study today, looking at the other sides of the analytical diamond such as onchain analysis, sentiment analysis, macro/liquidity analysis and other technical studies suggests this uptrend remains in early innings.
Until next time…
peace_love_crypto-DB
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