A New Crypto Timing Indicator: PART 2
Introducing The REKTelligence AROC Indicator
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: Technical View edition. Introducing the REKTelligence AROC indicator, Part 2. Current AROC levels for Bitcoin and Ether.
TODAY’S TECHNICAL VIEW
Introducing The REKTelligence AROC Indicator (Part 2)
As we explained in our last report, the REKTelligence Annual Rate of Change (AROC) indicator is derived from the asset’s annualized return since inception, measuring the rate of change in the asset’s annualized percentage return versus the same measure one year ago. The essence of the formula, below:
REKTelligence AROC = (Annualized % Return - Annualized % Return of 1 year ago) / Annualized % Return of 1 year ago * 100
Today we look at current AROC levels, starting with Bitcoin. While the blue line shows Bitcoin’s annualized return since inception — currently a steadily declining trajectory — the magenta line shows the rate of change of the annualized return. A 200-day simple moving average is then applied to the rate of change.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD). Daily Chart with REKTelligence AROC Indicator.
Having discussed Bitcoin’s May 2021 sell signal in our last report, we’ll turn our focus to mid-2022’s whipsaw signal and 2023’s buy signal.
While Bitcoin’s AROC closed above its 200ma on July 16, 2022 indicating an AROC buy signal, it soon closed back below on July 25, 2022 — a classic whipsaw signal.
07/16/2022, buy Bitcoin (21,196)
07/25/2022, sell Bitcoin (21,306)
In early January 2023, Bitcoin’s AROC once again closed back above its 200ma on January 7, 2023 indicating another AROC buy signal.
07/16/2023, buy Bitcoin (16,944)
No sell signal yet given as of today 08/31/2023 (mid-session price of 27,304)
Ether experienced a similar whipsaw to Bitcoin but much earlier — in late 2021:
10/29/2021, buy Ether (4418)
11/05/2021, sell Ether (4480)
One day after Bitcoin, on January 8, 2023, Ether’s AROC once again closed back above its 200ma indicating an AROC buy signal which remains open today.
01/08/2023, buy Ether (1289)
No sell signal yet given as of today 08/31/2023 (mid-session price of 1719)
ETHEREUM (ETHUSD). Daily Chart with REKTelligence AROC Indicator.
The AROC indicator appears to have the potential for several variations from the simple application of trendlines to the AROC to the implementation of two moving averages to the AROC to lower the occurrences of whipsaw signals.
Following additional research and potential enhancements, we anticipate making the AROC indicator available to subscribers. We appreciate your readership.
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