A Major Ethereum Signal Just Hit Today
A Look at Ether's New 100ma/200ma Crossover Signal
IN TODAY’S REPORT
What we cover: A major bullish moving average crossover in Ether. Historical hypothetical trades scatter. Charts of past signals. We couldn’t disagree more…
TODAY’S STATS
The Signal Nobody’s Talking About
Amid a newly resurgent altcoin market and the breathless anticipation of an imminent spot Bitcoin ETF approval, Ethereum just experienced a major moving average crossover. You won’t find mention of it on today’s crypto news desks or see it trending on X, but Ether’s 100-day moving average (100ma) just crossed above its 200-day moving average (200ma), and in today’s report we’ll examine why it’s one to pay close attention to.
ETHERERUM (ETH/USD). Daily Chart with 100ma and 200ma crossover.
Our first query is simple: how has Ether performed historically when its 100-day moving average (100ma) crosses over (i.e., becomes greater than the value of) its 200-day moving average (200ma)?
OUR ETHER QUERY'S SETUP CONDITIONS:
CONDITION 1: Ether's 100ma crosses over its 200ma
ENTRY AND EXIT CONDITIONS:
1. ENTRY CONDITION: Enter long ("buy") at the open of the next daily candle
2. EXIT CONDITION: Exit ("sell") at the open of the next daily candle once the 100ma crosses below the 200maHere are the past trades for all completed historical signals:
ETHER (ETH/USD). Closed Trades for 100ma/200ma crosses. Inception-Now.
The four historical occurrences have been profitable 75% of the time (3 of 4) with an impressive hypothetical average trade of +882.27%. While the average trade statistic will almost certainly moderate in years to come, this crossover certainly has our attention. For risk-obsessed traders and investors, the equally compelling fact is that the sole losing crossover signal shed less than one percent (-0.96%). Historically speaking, these crossover signals have either knocked it out of the park or hit a sacrificial fly to the outfield — impressive either way.
Since we have just four prior occurrences, let’s take a look at the charts for each. In March 2017, we saw Ethereum’s first 100ma >200ma crossover occur, leading to an eye-popping +2310% gain by May 2018.
ETHER (ETH/USD). Historical Daily Chart with 2017’s 100ma and 200ma crossover.
Ethereum’s second 100ma >200ma crossover in May 2019 initially saw a solid runup before ultimately closing out in October 2019 with a modest +6.55% gain.
ETHER (ETH/USD). Historical Daily Chart with 2019’s 100ma and 200ma crossover.
The last bull cycle of 2020 saw Ether’s other major signal gain 1213.07% in just under two years time, ending as the macro environment shifted in a major way in early 2022.
ETHER (ETH/USD). Historical Daily Chart with 2020’s 100ma and 200ma crossover.
The most recent completed 100ma/200ma crossover signal occurred this year, leading to the sole loss as ETH slumped in September. Note the new signal which occurred today 12/14/23 and which of course remains open.
ETHER (ETH/USD). Historical Daily Chart with 2023’s 100ma and 200ma crossover.
While some cry loudly that crypto has no “killer app” and Ethereum remains just a speculative project with few prospects going forward, we couldn’t disagree more. The web3 world is being built largely on the layer 1 foundation of Ethereum, with some arguing convincingly that stablecoins are already the highly adopted killer app everyone’s been looking for. In time, Ethereum will help provide the world with sorely-needed new financial infrastructure, enable an artistic middle class, and so much more.
For now, however, we’ll be satisfied to revel in another 100ma/200ma crossover signal and enjoy the show. It just may be the blockbuster we can all enjoy for the holidays.
peace_love_crypto-DB
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